850 ships stranded as Hormuz closure raises food inflation fears

The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints, has seen shipping traffic decline by more than 90 percent since the outbreak of conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, leaving between 850 and 870 large merchant vessels stranded inside the Gulf unable to safely exit, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). The Royal Navy-led monitoring body reported over 40 incidents between March 1 and April 27, including at least 26 direct attacks on merchant vessels, alongside cases of harassment and near-misses. Before the escalation, which began on February 28 after U.S. and Israeli strikes killed former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, approximately 130 ships transited the strait daily; that number has now fallen to fewer than 10 vessels per day. The disruption has raised significant concerns about food inflation, as the Hormuz closure has blocked roughly 30 percent of world urea and ammonia deliveries, causing fertilizer prices in the United States to nearly double since February. Natural gas, the primary component of nitrogen-based fertilizers, has driven costs higher amid the broader energy turmoil. United Nations official Jorge Moreira da Silva warned that the shortage could trigger a food security crisis with devastating consequences for the poor. However, some agriculture experts remain cautious about crisis predictions, noting that governments learned from the 1970s food crisis by strengthening grain inventories rather than reducing them. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported wheat stocks of 938 million bushels in April, up 10 percent from last year, and global production of coarse grains is expected to rise to 1.6 billion tons this year. The Hormuz situation has created a humanitarian concern for approximately 20,000 sailors aboard stranded vessels, with the UKMTO warning that crew changes have stopped and supplies are becoming strained, raising fears about the mental well-being of seafarers if the situation persists. Officials have cautioned that prolonged disruption could impact global trade routes and lead to increased risks beyond the Gulf, including a possible resurgence of piracy off the coast of Somalia. While food inflation appears inevitable, experts suggest that unlike the global food crisis of 1972 to 1975, when low grain inventories and droughts led to devastating shortages, current stockpiles provide a meaningful buffer against the worst-case scenarios some officials have outlined.