US strikes on Iran push fuel prices up as diesel tops $4
Mar 4th 2026
Following US strikes on Iran ordered by the Trump administration, diesel has climbed to $4 per gallon and gasoline is rising, while investment banks warn Brent crude could hit $100 to $120 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed.
- Average US diesel hit $4 per gallon, the highest since April 2024, and is projected to reach $4.25 to $4.45 per gallon, according to petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan.
- Average US gasoline is near $3.20 per gallon and is expected to rise above $3.30 in the coming days, per De Haan and US Energy Information Administration data.
- Wholesale RBOB gasoline futures have risen about 75 cents a gallon since their low earlier this year, a spike flagged by economist Paul Krugman.
- Goldman Sachs raised its Q2 2026 Brent crude forecast to $76 per barrel and warned Brent could reach $100 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for weeks, while JPMorgan said Brent could top $120 if the conflict continues.
- Analysts warn markets may be underestimating the economic risks of a prolonged Iran conflict, and the Trump administration has not outlined an end game after its strikes, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth saying the campaign is "playing for keeps."