Pacific warming and typhoon shifts linked to ancient floods that disrupted Shang China
Mar 10th 2026
Researchers combined coastal storm sediments, radiocarbon-dated settlement changes, Shang oracle bones, and weather simulations to link Pacific climate shifts and stronger typhoons with ancient floods and social disruption in central China.
- Paleotempestology records from China, South Korea, and Japan show more intense typhoons around 3,800, 3,300, and 2,800 years ago.
- Changes in Pacific El Nino behavior about 3,000 years ago are recorded off Peru and correlate with those storm pulses.
- Radiocarbon dates reveal sharp drops in settlements on the Central Plain around 3,800 and 3,300 years ago and a similar decline on the Chengdu Plain around 2,800 years ago.
- Climate simulations with Pango-weather show intensified typhoons can carry extra moisture inland, adding about 51 mm of rain per day to the Central Plain and about 24 mm per day to the Chengdu Plain.
- Over 55,000 Shang oracle bone inscriptions show increased concern about heavy rain and floods that matches the periods identified by sediments and archaeology.
- The study warns the same atmospheric mechanics still operate today and notes projections of about 14 percent stronger typhoons by century end, urging better inland flood preparedness.