The Digester

Citrini Research published a two year scenario in which AI agents replace outsourced white collar work, triggering a feedback loop of layoffs, falling demand and a major market decline; the group calls it a scenario not a prediction and reactions are mixed.

Citrini imagines a two year outcome where unemployment doubles and total stock market value falls by more than a third.
The scenario focuses on agentic AI replacing third party contractors and in house automation of transaction and procurement work.
Layoffs reduce consumer spending, margin pressure pushes firms to invest more in AI, and those investments drive further job losses in a reinforcing loop.
Citrini frames the paper as a scenario rather than a forecast and the report has generated online debate and skepticism.
A key uncertainty is whether firms will actually hand off complex purchasing and agency decisions to AI despite existing outsourcing of many such tasks.

Analyst scenario warns agentic AI could double unemployment and cut markets by a third

Sources