Artemis II succeeds but 2028 Moon landing is uncertain

Insights

• Artemis II's Orion spacecraft completed a far side lunar flyby and returned four astronauts safely to Earth.
• NASA depends on commercial landers from SpaceX and Blue Origin that are behind schedule, with Starship at least two years late and Blue Moon at least eight months late.
• A 2028 crewed landing requires a cryogenic propellant depot and more than 10 tanker flights to refuel in orbit, a complex engineering challenge.
• Artemis III's planned mid-2027 docking test is widely seen as a very steep ask given current development progress.
• China aims to land astronauts on the Moon around 2030 and could arrive first if Artemis slips.
• Human missions to Mars are likely decades away, with many experts pointing to the 2040s at the earliest due to radiation and landing challenges.