Trump says inflation tamed as Iran war lifts oil and price risks
Mar 3rd 2026
Oil surged after a U.S.-Israel strike and regional disruptions, raising the risk that higher energy and wholesale costs could undermine claims that inflation is firmly under control.
- West Texas Intermediate futures rose more than 5% and Brent about 6% after escalation in the Middle East.
- Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was nearly halted and a major Saudi refinery was disrupted, raising insurance and rerouting costs.
- January core producer prices rose 0.8% month over month, pushing 12 month PPI to 3.6%.
- The ISM manufacturing prices index showed more than 70% of managers reported higher prices in February, up 11.5 percentage points from January.
- Economists say the inflationary impact hinges on how long the conflict lasts and could be modest if the price spike is short lived.
- Markets have increased bets that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold at its March meeting and possibly into the summer.