The Digester

Trump says inflation tamed as Iran war lifts oil and price risks

Mar 3rd 2026

Oil surged after a U.S.-Israel strike and regional disruptions, raising the risk that higher energy and wholesale costs could undermine claims that inflation is firmly under control.

  • West Texas Intermediate futures rose more than 5% and Brent about 6% after escalation in the Middle East.
  • Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was nearly halted and a major Saudi refinery was disrupted, raising insurance and rerouting costs.
  • January core producer prices rose 0.8% month over month, pushing 12 month PPI to 3.6%.
  • The ISM manufacturing prices index showed more than 70% of managers reported higher prices in February, up 11.5 percentage points from January.
  • Economists say the inflationary impact hinges on how long the conflict lasts and could be modest if the price spike is short lived.
  • Markets have increased bets that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold at its March meeting and possibly into the summer.

Sources

cnbc.com