The Digester

Kalshi and Polymarket show roughly 50 percent odds of major Democratic gains in the November 2026 midterms, a trend that aligns with national polls showing a modest Democratic advantage.

Kalshi prices Democrats winning both the House and the Senate at about 50 percent.
Polymarket’s markets list Democrats taking the House while Republicans hold the Senate as the single most likely outcome at roughly 49.8 percent, though its combination probabilities differ from Kalshi.
National polling shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by about four to five points on average.
Midterms historically disadvantage the president’s party and President Donald Trump’s approval has slipped since he returned to office in January 2025.
All 435 House seats and a third of the Senate are on the ballot in November, giving Democrats clear paths to reclaim one or both chambers.

Betting markets put Democrats near 50 percent odds for major midterm gains

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