CBO projects Social Security trust fund exhaustion in 2032
Feb 23rd 2026
The Congressional Budget Office now says the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund could be depleted in 2032, one year sooner than last year, driven by higher projected inflation and weaker tax receipts that could lead to automatic benefit cuts.
- CBO estimates the OASI trust fund will be exhausted in 2032, down from a 2033 projection last year.
- Higher projected inflation could raise cost-of-living adjustments and accelerate reserve depletion.
- CBO also expects lower trust fund income from individual and payroll taxes.
- The Social Security Administration began drawing on trust fund reserves in 2021 after costs exceeded income.
- If reserves run out, benefits would not stop but could be reduced, with CBPP estimating about 81% of scheduled benefits might be payable.
- Advocates and analysts say policy changes will be needed soon to avoid automatic cuts to benefits.