Ceasefire opens a fragile new phase in the US-Iran crisis

Insights

• The ceasefire is a pause not a political settlement.
• Talks are set for Islamabad to tackle de-escalation, sanctions relief and regional security.
• Neither the US nor Iran achieved a decisive victory and both paid strategic and political costs.
• Iran remains militarily capable despite damage and can still threaten the Strait of Hormuz with missiles and drones.
• Nuclear limits, verification and linked sanctions relief are central and difficult to reconcile.
• Regional actors including Israel, Gulf states and external powers will be needed as guarantors or risk being sidelined.