general
China can absorb Iran war shocks, says Justin Lin
Justin Lin Yifu said China can absorb external shocks from the Iran war and still meet its 4.5 to 5 percent growth target if domestic measures are handled well, while preparing for possible US trade reneging.
Mar 27th 2026 · China
Insights
- No country is immune to the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict and higher oil prices.
- Lin warned a worst-case scenario could push the global economy into a recession similar to the 1970s oil crises.
- China has enough room to offset external shocks and meet its 2024 growth target of 4.5 to 5 percent if domestic policies are effective.
- The range-based growth target provides flexibility and China is preparing for the possibility that the United States might renege on trade deals.