The Digester

A US academic forecast using OECD purchasing-power data finds China could overtake the United States in government R&D spending within two to three years, driven by sustained growth in Chinese public investment despite recent slowdowns, while the US faces flat federal research budgets.

A University of California, San Diego FSIP forecast using OECD purchasing-power data predicts China could surpass US government R&D spending within two to three years, possibly as early as 2028.
China’s government R&D spending rose about 90% to $133 billion from 2013 to 2023, while US public R&D rose about 12% to $155 billion over the same period.
The FSIP projection assumes US public research spending stays broadly flat and accounts for a post-2020 slowdown in China’s growth.
China still spends less than half as much as the US on total fundamental research in 2023, at $53 billion versus $120 billion.
China has proposed at least 7% annual increases in total research spending from 2026 to 2030, which could bring the crossover sooner.
China is already outpacing the US on several research-output measures, with contributions in selected natural and health science journals on track to be about double US output by the end of 2026.

China may overtake the US as the world’s top public research funder within two years

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