China reshapes gas imports with a diversified pipeline and LNG portfolio

Insights

• China imports about 40% of its natural gas demand, supplied via both pipelines and LNG.
• Pipeline imports are dominated by Turkmenistan at roughly 45% and Russia at about 35 to 40%, with smaller volumes from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Myanmar.
• LNG imports are led by Australia, which supplies about one third of LNG volumes, followed by Qatar, Russia, Malaysia, Indonesia and occasional U.S. cargoes.
• China combines long-term oil indexed pipeline and LNG contracts with a growing use of spot LNG and JKM-linked pricing.
• Long-term Russian supplies via the Power of Siberia and other projects use take-or-pay, oil-indexed pricing that favors supply security over spot exposure.
• Large commercial oil stocks and reduced transport fuel demand from electrification provide buffers, with stocks covering an estimated 110 to 140 days.
• Shipping constraints and seasonal Northern Sea Route access raise freight costs and make redirecting cargoes to Asia costly without deep discounts.
• Rising oil and spot LNG prices will feed into gas costs over months and are likely to strain gas-intensive industries, especially chemicals.