China's crop forecasts may give it leverage if Iran disrupts fertiliser supplies
Mar 22nd 2026 · China
Tensions around Iran threaten urea shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, risking higher fertiliser costs and lower crop yields; China’s ability to forecast grain output over six months ahead may allow it to act earlier and convert supply shocks into strategic advantage.
- About one third of global urea exports transit the Strait of Hormuz.
- Urea production depends heavily on natural gas, so shipping or energy disruptions can quickly raise fertiliser costs.
- Higher input costs typically lead farmers to cut application rates, reducing yields.
- India and Indonesia are exposed because they import large shares of fertiliser or raw materials from the Gulf.
- China routinely forecasts grain output more than six months ahead with high accuracy, enabling earlier policy and trade responses that could shape global risk.