CNBC survey sees only two more Fed rate cuts even under Trump's next chair pick
Economists and Wall Street expect two quarter point cuts in 2026, leaving the federal funds rate near 3% through 2027 despite President Trump's calls for much deeper cuts.
- Survey averages two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2026, totaling 50 basis points.
- The funds rate is expected to settle around 3% in 2026 and remain near that level through 2027.
- Respondents do not expect the next Fed chair to lower rates toward the 1% target urged by President Trump.
- GDP growth is forecast at 2.4% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027 with unemployment about 4.5% by the end of 2026.
- Recession odds fall to 23% from 30% in December, and 58% of respondents say most tariff effects are already behind the economy.
- Half of respondents expect Kevin Warsh to be named Fed chair while prediction markets favor Rick Rieder.