Economic nationalism pushes world toward a zero-sum order
Tariffs, subsidies and export controls are replacing the late 20th century model of open trade as countries re-prioritize security and sovereignty. The shift is global, raising risks of economic fragmentation, higher costs and weakened multilateral rules.
- Trade barriers, subsidies and export bans are on the rise, reversing decades of liberalization.
- Economic nationalism is now widespread across the US, EU, Japan, Indonesia and other countries regardless of ideology.
- Policies are prioritizing security and sovereignty over efficiency and integrated supply chains.
- The trend increases the risk of fragmentation into rival economic blocs and weakens multilateral institutions like the WTO.
- Techno-nationalism threatens to split global research and standards, slowing innovation and cooperation on shared challenges.
- Developing countries face a core dilemma between asserting resource sovereignty and needing foreign capital and technology to develop their industries.