The Digester
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Economist: Iran war will raise costs for Americans for years

Mar 22nd 2026 · United States

Henriette Treyz told MS NOW that sustained high oil prices, disrupted shipping and tightened policy expectations will push gas, food, interest rates and retirement savings higher for American consumers.

  • Treyz said even if bombing stopped today it could take about 200 days for prices to normalize and the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to reopen that quickly.
  • United Airlines CEO warned the airline is planning for crude near $175 per barrel and expects prices above $100 until 2027.
  • Markets have removed expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year because of the war and the possibility of returning tariffs.
  • Higher oil and shipping costs will increase consumer prices for gasoline, food, airfares and semiconductors.
  • Retirement accounts and consumer sentiment are already taking hits and are likely to worsen as higher rates and prices persist.

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