Economists Propose 'Reverse OPEC' to Counter Energy Crisis

Seven OPEC+ countries have agreed in principle to raise oil output targets by approximately 188,000 barrels per day in June, according to sources familiar with the group's thinking, despite the United Arab Emirates announcing its departure from the coalition on May 1. The planned increase, similar to last month's 206,000 bpd hike minus the UAE's share, signals OPEC+ is maintaining a business-as-usual approach ahead of a policy meeting on Sunday. The move comes amid the largest energy crisis in modern history, with oil exports projected to decline by 1.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, leaving countries like Pakistan, Indonesia, and the Philippines within days of running out of gasoline and crude oil, while Europe has approximately six weeks of jet fuel supplies remaining, according to International Energy Agency warnings. University of Massachusetts Amherst economist Gregor Semieniuk, along with colleague Isabella Weber, has proposed what they call a "radical idea" to address the crisis: a buyers' coalition that would function as a reverse OPEC, in which oil-importing nations would collectively corner the market to press exporters to sell at more affordable prices rather than allowing bidding wars to price out poorer countries. The concept mirrors the International Energy Agency's founding purpose in 1974 as a consuming-nations counterweight to OPEC. Semieniuk argues that with analysts suggesting the Strait of Hormuz will remain restricted into the second half of the year, high-income countries will continue to outbid developing nations, exacerbating shortages and driving up global prices under the free-market framework that has governed oil distribution since President Ronald Reagan removed price controls in 1981. Cornell University economics and trade policy professor Eswar Prasad noted that global trade dynamics have shifted over the past decade toward a "zero sum game" mentality, with wealthy countries stockpiling resources while poorer nations face deprivation, as occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic with vaccines and PPE. Semieniuk contends the United States, as a wealthy net exporter that achieved a record energy surplus of 9.3 quadrillion British thermal units in 2024, is positioned to lead the coalition but faces questions about political will. He suggested the U.S. could also implement excess profit taxes on oil companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron, noting that OPEC has spent 65 years proving a cartel can reshape global energy markets and questioning whether the consuming world can do the same.