The Digester

Factories Can Return to the US, But Jobs May Not

Mar 1st 2026

Policy moves and investment can grow US factory output, but long-term trends and automation mean employment may not return to its former levels.

  • Manufacturing employment peaked at 19.6 million in 1979 and fell to a low in 2010 before remaining between 12 million and 13 million for more than a decade.
  • Recent administration actions include government equity stakes in companies, direct pressure on industry, and tariffs intended to spur domestic investment.
  • The Supreme Court blocked the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs, but tariffs remain part of policy tools.
  • Tariffs and reshoring can increase domestic production but do not guarantee a return of lost manufacturing jobs.
  • Automation and long-term productivity gains mean more output often requires fewer workers than in past decades.