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FAO warns food prices could rise further if Iran war continues

The UN says March food prices hit their highest since September and could increase further if the Iran-related conflict keeps energy and fertiliser costs elevated, forcing farmers to cut inputs or plant less and lowering future yields.

Apr 3rd 2026 · Iran

Insights

  • FAO Food Price Index rose 2.4% in March and is 1% above its level a year ago.
  • March food prices were the highest since September last year but remain about 20% below the March 2022 peak.
  • Cereal prices rose 1.5% in March, led by a 4.3% jump in international wheat prices amid weaker US crop prospects and expected lower Australian plantings.
  • Vegetable oil prices climbed 5.1%, with palm oil at its highest since mid 2022, and sugar jumped 7.2% on stronger ethanol prospects.
  • FAO warns that if the Middle East conflict lasts more than 40 days and input costs stay high, farmers may cut fertiliser use or plantings, reducing future yields.
  • FAO slightly raised its 2025 global cereal production forecast to a record 3.036 billion metric tons, up 5.8% year on year.

Sources