The Digester

Gulf conflict revives pandemic-era shocks to trade and travel

Mar 20th 2026

Escalation around Iran is interrupting key sea lanes and flights, raising costs for fuel and shipping and reviving supply-chain and inflation risks last seen during the pandemic.

  • Attacks and threats linked to Iran have disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil.
  • Some ships are detouring or waiting at sea, pushing up shipping costs and insurance premiums and adding pressure to fuel prices.
  • Iran has signaled the Bab el Mandeb could be targeted, raising the risk to Red Sea routes and wider global trade.
  • Limited, negotiated transits have been allowed for some countries, but access remains unstable and the conflict’s duration is uncertain.

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