Heat-driven droughts have surged worldwide since 1980s, study finds
Mar 11th 2026
A Science Advances study by researchers in South Korea and Australia finds extreme heat that triggers drought has spread rapidly since 1980, with a sharp acceleration around 2000 and widespread rises in flash drought risk across several continents.
- Study published in Science Advances shows heat-first compound extremes rose from about 2.5% of Earth's land in the 1980s to 16.7% in 2023.
- The 10-year average through 2023 was 7.9%, and authors say 2024 and 2025 likely raised that further due to record warmth.
- The rate of increase in heat-first events since about 2000 is eight times higher than in earlier decades.
- Heat-first sequences tend to produce flash droughts that form rapidly and cause stronger impacts than droughts that begin with dry conditions.
- Largest increases were recorded in South America, western Canada, Alaska, the western United States, and parts of central and eastern Africa.
- Researchers note a change point around 2000 that may be linked to Arctic warming, sea-ice loss, declining spring snow cover, and the late 1990s El Nino, while some models warn another El Nino could raise risks this year.