How AI agents could destroy the economy
Feb 27th 2026
A Citrini Research thought experiment shows how widespread use of autonomous AI agents could trigger a self-reinforcing collapse of demand and equity values by replacing outsourced white collar roles over a short period.
- Citrini Research published a scenario where agentic AI replaces outsourced white collar work, doubling unemployment and cutting total stock market value by more than a third within two years.
- The modeled mechanism is a negative feedback loop: AI reduces labor demand, displaced workers spend less, firms face margin pressure and invest more in AI, which further reduces demand.
- Risk concentrates in business models that optimize transactions between companies, including many SaaS and intermediary services, when those functions are internalized by cheaper AI agents.
- Citrini calls this a scenario rather than a prediction and experts say outcomes depend on adoption speed, regulation, human oversight, and whether new demand or jobs emerge to offset job losses.