The Digester

How the $38.9 trillion U.S. debt is adding thousands to your mortgage

Mar 11th 2026

A Yale Budget Lab analysis finds debt added by laws since 2015 has raised long-term rates and increased borrowing costs for Americans, adding roughly $76,000 to the average new 30-year mortgage under the report's baseline assumptions.

  • U.S. national debt is about $38.87 trillion and closing in on $40 trillion.
  • Yale Budget Lab says laws passed since 2015 raised projected federal debt by about 49 percent and pushed up long-term rates under its baseline scenario.
  • Under that baseline the average new homebuyer would pay roughly $76,014 more over a 30-year mortgage, about $2,534 per year.
  • If interest-rate sensitivity is lower the extra cost falls to about $57,347, and if it is higher it rises to about $112,640.
  • The report also estimates about $670 more over the life of a 5.75-year auto loan and about $7,723 more on a 10-year small business loan.
  • Key contributors to the added debt include the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and large pandemic-era fiscal relief, and the analysis assumes mortgage rates move roughly one-for-one with Treasury yields and that each 1 percent rise in debt raises rates by 0.02 percent.