Attacks near Strait of Hormuz raise global recession risk
Mar 3rd 2026
Attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz have sharply cut ship traffic and heightened fears that sustained disruptions to oil and gas shipments could tip the global economy into recession.
- Tanker attacks off Oman followed U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and reduced ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by about 70% day over day.
- Roughly 20% of the world’s liquid petroleum and about 20% of globally traded LNG transit the strait, making it a major energy chokepoint.
- Experts warn that a prolonged closure or sustained disruption could sharply cut global energy supply and push the world economy into recession, with some analysts calling a long shutdown a guaranteed recession.
- Brent crude rose to about $86 a barrel after the attacks, and analysts say prices could climb to $100 or higher if disruptions continue.
- Pipelines and other workarounds exist but lack the capacity to fully replace strait flows, and Iran would face military and logistical challenges in sustaining a closure