The Digester

How worried should you be about an asteroid hitting Earth?

Mar 17th 2026

A civilization-ending asteroid is extremely unlikely in our lifetime, but gaps remain for 100 metre class objects; better telescopes and demonstrated deflection technology reduce the risk further.

  • Extinction level impacts from 10 kilometre asteroids are extremely rare and all such potential threats have been found.
  • Kilometre-scale impacts happen about once per million years and roughly 80 percent of those asteroids have been detected.
  • Objects smaller than 100 metres usually burn up or cause only local damage, like the 2013 Chelyabinsk event.
  • Asteroids around 100 metres across can cause city-scale destruction and less than half of them have been discovered.
  • Astronomers track thousands of near-Earth objects and only about 35 have more than a one-in-a-million chance of hitting Earth in the next 100 years.
  • NASA's DART mission showed we can alter an asteroid's path if we detect it years in advance, and the NEO Surveyor telescope launching next year should find many more hazardous objects.
  • If an impact were unavoidable it would likely hit the ocean or uninhabited land, and response would follow ordinary disaster planning such as evacuation and sheltering.