How worried should you be about an asteroid hitting Earth?
Mar 17th 2026
A civilization-ending asteroid is extremely unlikely in our lifetime, but gaps remain for 100 metre class objects; better telescopes and demonstrated deflection technology reduce the risk further.
- Extinction level impacts from 10 kilometre asteroids are extremely rare and all such potential threats have been found.
- Kilometre-scale impacts happen about once per million years and roughly 80 percent of those asteroids have been detected.
- Objects smaller than 100 metres usually burn up or cause only local damage, like the 2013 Chelyabinsk event.
- Asteroids around 100 metres across can cause city-scale destruction and less than half of them have been discovered.
- Astronomers track thousands of near-Earth objects and only about 35 have more than a one-in-a-million chance of hitting Earth in the next 100 years.
- NASA's DART mission showed we can alter an asteroid's path if we detect it years in advance, and the NEO Surveyor telescope launching next year should find many more hazardous objects.
- If an impact were unavoidable it would likely hit the ocean or uninhabited land, and response would follow ordinary disaster planning such as evacuation and sheltering.
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