Hundreds of studies underestimated sea level rise by about 25 cm
Mar 4th 2026
A Nature analysis of 385 papers finds about 99% used incorrect sea level data, leading to average underestimates of 24 to 27 centimeters and local errors exceeding one meter in some regions.
- An analysis of 385 peer-reviewed studies from 2009 to 2025 found roughly 99% misestimated sea level height.
- Most errors came from using geoids instead of direct sea level measurements, which ignore ocean currents, tides and water temperature.
- The analysis by Seeger and Minderhoud in Nature estimates studies underestimated coastal sea level by an average of 24 to 27 centimeters.
- Some regions, including parts of Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific, were underestimated by more than one meter.
- The set of misestimated papers includes 45 studies cited in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.
- A one-meter sea level rise could flood areas home to as many as 132 million people, up to 68% more than earlier estimates suggested.
- The researchers released a publicly available dataset that integrates recent satellite sea level measurements to help correct future assessments.