The Digester

How a wider Iran conflict could trigger a global economic shock

Mar 4th 2026

A broader US-Israel confrontation with Iran could quickly raise energy prices, feed inflation, rock markets and ripple through households, businesses and politics around the world.

  • Conflict that threatens the Strait of Hormuz tends to push oil and gas prices higher.
  • Higher energy costs can drive up household bills and inflation while reducing consumer spending.
  • Energy intensive sectors such as data centres, AI and crypto are especially vulnerable to rising energy prices.
  • Rising inflation and market volatility can reduce business investment and weigh on employment growth.
  • Sustained economic pain from a protracted conflict can change voter behaviour and affect election outcomes.