Immigration Linked to Fewer Deaths Among Older Americans
Feb 24th 2026
An NBER working paper by Grabowski, Gruber, and McGarry (2026) uses a shift share design to show that higher immigration raises foreign healthcare staffing and could prevent thousands of deaths among elderly Americans by reducing nursing home use.
- The paper uses a shift share approach to estimate immigration effects on older adult mortality.
- Admitting 1,000 new immigrants is associated with 142 additional foreign healthcare workers.
- There is no evidence that native healthcare employment is crowded out by the increase in immigrants.
- A 25% increase in the steady state flow of immigrants would lead to about 5,000 fewer deaths nationwide.
- Reduced nursing home use is identified as a key mechanism behind the mortality decline.