Iran claims the upper hand as US-Iran war disrupts global energy

Insights

• President Trump says US objectives are nearly complete even as his public statements conflict with on-the-ground deployments and diplomacy.
• Iran has reduced tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, sharply raising energy and commodity price risks worldwide.
• Tehran has survived heavy strikes and senior leadership losses and has signaled it will not negotiate directly with Washington while it holds leverage.
• The US delivered a 15 point peace plan while Iran floated a shorter counterproposal seeking compensation and continued influence over Strait passage.
• Military options to reopen the Strait, including occupying islands like Kharg, would be costly, risky, and unlikely to guarantee long-term control if the regime remains.
• China, Pakistan and other actors are being courted to mediate, and a prolonged crisis could weaken US alliances and shift diplomatic weight.
• If the US withdraws without securing the Strait, Iran could monetize passage or secure deals that leave it strategically strengthened despite wartime losses.