Iran-US peace talks collapse as Hormuz blockade begins

Airstrikes launched by Israel with American intelligence support killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on March 1st, and six weeks of continued U.S. and Israeli strikes have since killed dozens of Iranian government leaders, including members of Iran's National Security Council. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the hard-line speaker of Iran's parliament who at sixty-four years old has emerged as one of the regime's most powerful figures, led an Iranian delegation in marathon peace talks with the United States in Pakistan over the weekend, marking the highest-level meeting between the two countries since Iran's Islamic Revolution in 1979. The twenty-one hours of negotiations ended in a deadlock, with the main sticking point being the extent to which Iran's nuclear activity will be allowed to continue. Following the failed talks, President Donald Trump announced a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which could cost the Iranian regime up to four hundred thirty-five million dollars a day in lost export and import revenues, according to former U.S. Treasury official Miad Maleki. Trump has said peace talks could restart as soon as Friday, and the White House indicated no firm deadline has been set for Iran to submit a peace proposal. Iran's new leadership, which includes Ghalibaf, General Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr who now leads the Supreme National Security Council, and Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi, the new commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, are described by experts as more hard-line, more militaristic, and more reckless than their predecessors. These figures rose to prominence during the Iran-Iraq War of the nineteen-eighties as part of a class of experienced I.R.G.C. commanders, maintain close ties to the hawkish wing of the paramilitary group designated a foreign terrorist organization by the United States, and have extensive records of domestic repression. Iran experts told the magazine that Iran's power structure, which is largely decentralized with several overlapping spheres of influence, has allowed the regime to survive decapitation strikes and has prevented anyone similar to a Delcy Rodriguez from emerging within the leadership. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution noted that Iran believes it won the war and still holds the trump card of control over the Strait of Hormuz, stating that as long as they can control that strategic waterway, they do not see the need to present a more amenable face to Americans. Mojtaba Khamenei, the injured son of the deceased Supreme Leader who reportedly was elevated to become the new Ayatollah by I.R.G.C. generals despite limited religious credentials, remains unseen since the war began, with Vali Nasr of Johns Hopkins University observing that power has shifted from the office of the Supreme Leader to the Revolutionary Guards, making Iran "a military system" in practice. On Thursday, Ghalibaf posted on social media that reopening the Strait of Hormuz is "not possible" amid what Tehran calls "flagrant violations" of the current ceasefire by the United States and Israel, asserting that the U.S. naval blockade undermines truce commitments. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also rebuked Trump, calling out his "hypocritical rhetoric" amid the diplomatic standoff. Oil prices jumped four percent Thursday with Brent crude returning above one hundred dollars per barrel as markets reacted to uncertainty over whether the war will resume. Lebanon and Israel held a new round of talks in Washington on Thursday, with Beirut requesting a one-month extension of a ceasefire due to expire on Sunday. Despite the ongoing tensions, Ghalibaf left the door open for future talks, posting that "America has understood our logic and principles, and now it's time for it to decide whether it can earn our trust or not."