Iran war deepens global economic shock

Insights

• Brent crude rose to about $105 a barrel and U.S. crude to about $100 as Gulf strikes pushed energy prices higher.
• Closure threats to the Strait of Hormuz and related actions removed roughly 20 million barrels per day from markets, a record supply disruption per the IEA.
• A March 18 strike on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG terminal wiped out 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity and may take up to five years to repair.
• Fertilizer and helium supplies are constrained, with urea up about 50% and ammonia up about 20%, raising risks to crop yields and food prices.
• Several developing countries are rationing fuel, cutting public energy use, and subsidizing prices to protect poor households.
• Damage to Gulf energy infrastructure and transport links makes a prolonged global slowdown and higher inflation more likely