Prediction markets face backlash after bets on Khamenei's fate
Mar 2nd 2026
Lawmakers and a new trade group are pushing for bans and tighter rules after public bets on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's fate sparked refunds, controversy, and renewed calls for oversight.
- Sen. Chris Murphy said he will introduce legislation to ban prediction bets that profit from war and death.
- Rep. Mike Levin demanded transparency and oversight, saying markets must not reward advance knowledge of military action.
- A new trade group led by Mick Mulvaney, Gambling Is Not Investing, argues prediction markets undermine state and tribal gambling protections.
- Kalshi said it does not allow markets tied to death, refunded fees and losses, and blamed unclear user experience for confusion.
- An offshore platform reportedly paid a large winning ticket, highlighting regulatory gaps between federal CFTC oversight and state betting regimes.