Jet Fuel Prices Surge to $150/Barrel as Iran War Disrupts Supply

President Donald Trump's escalating war with Iran has triggered a cascade of political, economic, and diplomatic crises that now threaten both his own approval ratings and the Republican Party's prospects in upcoming midterm elections. Trump's approval has fallen to just 37 percent according to The Economist's polling aggregate, approaching his lowest levels during his first term and nearing the 36 percent approval rating of former President Joe Biden when he left office. The conflict has deepened divisions within the MAGA base, particularly after Trump shared AI-generated images depicting himself with Jesus, prompting criticism from conservative Catholics and evangelicals who called the images "blatant blasphemy." The controversy escalated into an open dispute with Pope Leo XIV, who condemned the war, prompting Vice President JD Vance and House Speaker Mike Johnson to publicly defend Trump while dismissing the Pope's remarks. Republicans now face mounting concerns about Senate races in key states like Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio, where previously favorable contests have shifted toward Democrats. The International Energy Agency has warned of potential jet fuel supply disruptions across Europe in the coming weeks as Iranian bombings have damaged refineries throughout the Persian Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world's jet fuel flows, remains a critical chokepoint even as ceasefire negotiations continue. Europe depends on Middle Eastern refineries for 75 percent of its aviation fuel, and the damage cannot be repaired quickly even if shipping resumed immediately. Jet fuel prices have already surged above crude oil, reaching 150 dollars per barrel, prompting airlines to cancel non-strategic routes and signaling inevitable ticket price increases. Airlines for Europe and the International Air Transport Association have urged the European Union to adopt emergency measures including coordinated fuel supply management and temporary suspension of the carbon market for aviation. From the Iranian perspective, the war has extinguished hopes among those who initially viewed foreign intervention as their only path to change following decades of repression, conflict, and economic hardship. Maryam Alemzadeh, a professor of Iranian history and politics at Oxford, argues in an opinion piece that while hardliners within Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps currently hold sway, the post-war period may incentivize more pragmatic leadership. She contends that a revitalized but slightly moderate Islamic Republic, combined with potential sanctions relief, could create space for civil society to gradually rebuild and eventually pursue democratic change from below. However, she emphasizes that the regime will never recover popular legitimacy, and any economic relief would merely serve as a temporary pressure valve rather than addressing the fundamental grievances of the Iranian people.