Kalshi will not pay $54 million after users correctly predicted Ayatollah Khamenei’s death
Mar 7th 2026
Prediction market app Kalshi says its rules bar payouts for death-linked outcomes and will not honor expected winnings after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s confirmed death, offering limited reimbursements for trades made during a clarification window.
- About $54 million was wagered on a Kalshi market that showed 68 percent odds Khamenei would be “out as Supreme Leader” after U.S.-Israeli airstrikes.
- Khamenei was later confirmed dead and Kalshi said it does not offer markets that settle on death.
- The company said such markets resolve at the last traded price before confirmed reporting of death and offered reimbursements for trades made between its clarification messages.
- CEO Tarek Mansour said “out” referred to voluntary removal or peaceful transition, not assassination, and defended the market as geopolitically relevant.
- Many users complained and at least one bettor said he expected a $63,000 payout before the rule clarification.
- Senator Chris Murphy and critics called death-linked betting immoral and Murphy said he is drafting legislation to restrict such prediction markets.