Citadel Securities rebuts Substack's '2028 AI doomsday' forecast
Mar 2nd 2026
Ken Griffin's Citadel Securities used job posting, survey and macro data to dispute Citrini Research's hypothetical 2028 scenario of widespread AI-driven economic collapse, arguing that jobs, new business formation and physical limits on compute make the doomsday model implausible.
- Citrini Research's Substack report envisions June 2028 with the S&P 500 down 38% and unemployment at 10.2% from mass white collar displacement.
- Citrini predicts a self-reinforcing human intelligence displacement spiral that would collapse consumer demand and stress mortgages and private credit.
- Citadel Securities published a macro report using real-time data to challenge the report's assumptions and conclusions.
- Citadel cites Indeed data showing software engineer job postings rose 11% year over year in early 2026.
- Citadel points to St. Louis Fed real-time survey data that daily GenAI use at work is stable and shows little evidence of imminent large-scale displacement.
- Citadel argues physical limits on compute, energy, capital allocation and regulation create natural brakes on runaway AI adoption.
- Citadel says productivity improvements from AI are supply shocks that lower costs and expand real income, making a permanent collapse in labor income and absent capital spending unlikely