Low fertility likely to persist and may benefit economies, researchers say
Mar 3rd 2026
A Nature Human Behaviour correspondence argues that very low birth rates in rich countries are likely to continue and could produce social and economic benefits, overturning older expectations that fertility would rebound to replacement levels.
- High-income countries increasingly show fertility well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.
- Several developed nations have reached so-called lowest-low fertility at or below 1.3 children per woman.
- The classic demographic transition predicted fertility would stabilize near replacement after mortality fell, but empirical trends have continued downward.
- Early UN population projections assumed stabilization at replacement, a view challenged by sustained post-1960s fertility declines.
- Past research found the fertility-Human Development Index relationship turns positive above an HDI of about 0.86, but declines continued in high-HDI countries.
- Marois and Lutz conclude that persistently low fertility is likely and, under plausible economic and demographic conditions, could be socially and economically advantageous.