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Markets face rate hike risk as Iran conflict lifts oil above $100

Mar 23rd 2026 · United States

Global markets sold off and yields rose after fighting involving Iran pushed oil to $100, prompting traders and central banks to pull back on expectations of interest rate cuts.

  • Oil topped $100 a barrel as the US-Israel war with Iran entered its fourth week.
  • Traders now expect no Federal Reserve rate cuts this year after Chair Jerome Powell linked higher oil to monetary uncertainty.
  • The European Central Bank has returned to more hawkish wording that often precedes rate increases.
  • Bank of America and ING scaled back expectations for rate cuts in China and raised the chance of earlier hikes in South Korea.
  • Asian stocks fell, bond yields rose, and gold retreated as markets priced a higher interest rate environment.