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Markets price four UK rate rises as Middle East conflict raises inflation risk

Mar 23rd 2026 ยท United Kingdom

Financial markets are pricing four Bank of England rate rises this year amid Middle East tensions, driving up mortgage costs, lifting gilt yields and weakening sterling.

  • Markets price four quarter-point Bank Rate increases to 4.75% from 3.75% by year-end.
  • The Bank of England left rates on hold and governor Andrew Bailey warned markets may be getting ahead of themselves.
  • Average two-year fixed mortgage rates rose to 5.43%, reducing available products to 6,144 from 6,659.
  • Some analysts, including MUFG and Goldman Sachs, say the expectation of four rises is overdone and the MPC may hold at 3.75%.
  • The Middle East conflict and oil route risks pushed investors into US assets, lifting the dollar and weakening sterling to about $1.332.
  • The 10-year gilt yield climbed to about 5.05%, roughly 0.8 percentage points higher since the conflict began, and global stocks fell.