The Digester
finance

Middle East war disrupts oil flows, risks global growth

Five weeks of fighting and Tehran's pressure on the Strait of Hormuz have forced over 40 countries to seek ways to restore oil and gas shipments, raising inflation and recession risks worldwide.

Apr 2nd 2026 · Iran

Insights

  • Tehran's moves around the Strait of Hormuz threaten routes that carried up to 20% of global oil and 25% of gas before the conflict.
  • More than 40 countries, convened by the UK, are coordinating plans to reopen maritime traffic and find alternative supplies.
  • Oil prices have spiked with military escalations and dropped after unclear US statements, reflecting high market uncertainty.
  • Asian states have started fuel and electricity rationing and airlines warn of fuel shortages from early May.
  • Prolonged instability would push up inflation and increase the chance of a global recession, though the economy has shown temporary resilience.

Sources