The Digester

Murphy and Casar introduce bill to ban bets on wars and government actions

Mar 18th 2026

A proposed federal law would ban prediction market bets on sensitive government actions after lawmakers flagged six-figure winnings tied to recent geopolitical events and raised insider trading concerns.

  • Senator Chris Murphy and Representative Greg Casar plan to introduce the BETS OFF Act to bar wagers on government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events where an individual knows or controls the outcome.
  • The move follows high-value bets on prediction platforms tied to a US-Israel strike on Iran and the reported abduction of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro.
  • Lawmakers say hundreds of new accounts and six-figure payouts appeared just before those events, raising insider trading and influence concerns, but they have not produced proof linking bets to White House officials.
  • Platforms such as Polymarket allow anonymous wagering, which critics say complicates oversight and could enable people with insider knowledge to profit.
  • The bill is part of a broader push that includes proposals from Senators Blumenthal, Merkley, and Klobuchar and state actions in Minnesota and Arizona.
  • The White House denied involvement, and Kalshi and Polymarket did not provide public comments in response to requests.

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