The Digester

NASA will not give a single risk number for Artemis II as crewed lunar test flight nears

Mar 13th 2026

At a flight readiness review NASA managers said numerical risk estimates for Artemis II are not decisive with limited test data, described major technical concerns, and voted to press ahead toward an early April launch after fixing recent fueling issues.

  • Flight readiness reviewers approved continuing preparations for Artemis II with a launch no earlier than April 1, 2026.
  • NASA officials said probabilistic loss estimates are unreliable for Artemis II because there is only one prior integrated flight test of SLS and Orion.
  • Artemis II will be the first crewed mission near the Moon since 1972 and will travel thousands of miles beyond the far side for a nine day mission.
  • Engineers fixed a leaky hydrogen seal and an upper stage helium loading problem that delayed the rocket, and SLS is expected to return to the pad next week.
  • Mission leadership said they want to drive failure probability below 1 in 50 but acknowledged current uncertainty and that the mission is likely riskier than that goal.
  • Top technical concerns include micrometeoroid and orbital debris threats and Orion life support, while dynamic phases like ascent, TLI, and reentry remain critical risk periods.

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