New data undercut Trump’s tariff and growth claims
Feb 22nd 2026
Two Bureau of Economic Analysis releases show the 2025 trade deficit barely moved and fourth-quarter GDP was far weaker than the numbers the president cited, and the Supreme Court struck down many of his tariffs.
- The BEA reported the 2025 trade deficit in goods and services fell just 0.2% from 2024, not the 78% reduction the president posted.
- The trade deficit in goods rose 2.1% year over year, and the 78% figure came from a short-term October 2025 snapshot that experts warned was temporary.
- Tariffs are paid by US importers and are largely borne by US businesses and consumers rather than foreign governments.
- BEA said real GDP grew at an annualized 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, well below the 5.4 to 5.6% figures the president cited.
- Full-year GDP for 2025 was 2.2% and the fall government shutdown contributed to weak Q4 growth, while the Supreme Court struck down many tariffs and the president said he will replace the invalidated ones under a different law.