Oil set to surge after Iran strikes and Strait of Hormuz closure
Mar 1st 2026
Crude markets face a sharp rally after Iran-linked strikes and an effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted shipments and raised insurance and port suspensions, even as Opec+ pledged modest extra output.
- US crude is poised to rise about 11% to above $74 a barrel when markets reopen, according to broker IG.
- Iran's Revolutionary Guards reportedly told ships that passage through the Strait of Hormuz was prohibited, effectively halting traffic after attacks on tankers.
- About $500bn of energy trade and roughly 20% of global oil supplies transit the strait each year, raising the risk of major supply disruption.
- Opec+ agreed to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day in April, exceeding earlier expectations but with limited spare capacity beyond Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
- Shipping insurers have raised war risk premiums and operators such as DP World suspended operations at Jebel Ali while several ports halted activity, slowing cargo flows.
- Higher wholesale oil prices are expected to feed through to pump prices and pushed investors toward safe havens as several Gulf stock markets suspended trading.