OPEC+ mulls May output rise while Iran war halts Gulf flows

Insights

• OPEC+ may approve a largely paper increase in quotas on Sunday that would not immediately add barrels to the market.
• The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz and cut exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq.
• Sanctions on Russia and wartime damage to infrastructure prevent other members from raising production.
• Consultants estimate 12 to 15 million barrels per day have been removed from global supply, the largest disruption on record.
• U.S. WTI closed at $111.54 and Brent at $109.03 on Friday, near four year highs and vulnerable to further spikes.
• Any approved increase would signal readiness to raise output once Hormuz reopens but would not ease current shortages.