general

Powell says Fed can wait on rate hikes amid Iran conflict

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed can adopt a wait and see approach to higher oil and gasoline prices from the Iran war because monetary policy acts with long lags and energy shocks often fade quickly.

Mar 30th 2026 · United States

Insights

  • Powell told a Harvard class that the Fed's current policy stance is well positioned to monitor oil price effects from the war in Iran.
  • He said energy shocks tend to be sudden and short lived while monetary policy works with long and variable lags.
  • Powell warned that raising rates now could end up tightening the economy after an oil price shock has passed.
  • He described tariff driven inflation as smaller and more transitory than post pandemic inflationary pressures.
  • In February US headline CPI was 2.4% year on year and core CPI was 2.5%, and the Fed has kept its policy rate at 3.5 to 3.75 percent since December.