The Digester

Prediction markets make the Oscars a big betting moment

Mar 14th 2026

Prediction market firms are embedding betting data into awards coverage as trading volumes around the Oscars rise and media partnerships expand, turning ceremony season into a major betting event.

  • Kalshi announced a deal to supply real-time prediction market data to Rotten Tomatoes for awards coverage and says the data will not change Tomatometer scores.
  • Polymarket recently partnered with the Golden Globes, showing an emerging link between awards shows and prediction platforms.
  • Prediction markets use peer-to-peer yes or no contracts to let users bet on outcomes ranging from wars to film awards.
  • Kalshi reports a notable rise in trading volume tied to this year’s Oscars compared with last year.
  • Betting interest around films such as Sinners has been driven by box office numbers, awards momentum, and events like the BAFTAs that shifted perceived odds.