Why the Trump stock market rally may be nearing its end
Mar 9th 2026
Major US indexes have posted large gains under President Trump and on AI optimism, but 150 years of market history and potential monetary and economic headwinds increase the risk that the rally will end soon.
- From Jan 20, 2017 to Jan 20, 2021 the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq rose about 57%, 70%, and 142% respectively, and they have gained roughly 12%, 15%, and 16% since Jan 20, 2025 through March 2.
- AI and quantum computing are major secular drivers, with PwC estimating AI could add about $15.7 trillion to global GDP by 2030 and BCG estimating $450 billion to $850 billion from quantum computing by 2040.
- Federal Reserve rate cuts have helped fuel the rally, but the Fed is independent and future tightening or credit stress could reverse the trend.
- More than 150 years of US market data show long bull runs often end when monetary policy tightens, economic growth slows, or asset valuations become stretched.
- Investors should monitor earnings, interest rates, credit conditions, and geopolitical events as likely triggers for a market turn.