The Digester

Premier League run-in: title chase, Champions League battle and relegation fight

Mar 12th 2026

With fewer than 10 Premier League rounds left, Arsenal lead by seven points but face key fixtures, Manchester City are less dominant than in previous years, the top-five race is tight and the final relegation spot remains hotly contested.

  • Arsenal lead Manchester City by seven points but have played one more game.
  • Arsenal have a slightly easier run-in on paper but face a potentially decisive trip to the Etihad on 19 April.
  • Manchester City are not as dominant as in past seasons, with only two seasons under Pep Guardiola producing fewer points after 29 games than this term's 60 (58 in 2016-17 and 48 last season).
  • Neither Arsenal nor City show the same expected goals dominance as recent title winners, and the team with the best expected goal difference per game has won three of the last four titles.
  • A tight fight for the top five sees Manchester United, Aston Villa, Chelsea and Liverpool separated by three points, with fifth place likely to still qualify for the Champions League.
  • Wolves and Burnley are almost certain to be relegated, leaving Leeds, Tottenham, Nottingham Forest and West Ham to contest the final drop place, with Leeds having the kindest fixtures and West Ham showing recent form improvement under Nuno Espirito Santo.

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