Research firm scenario: AI could hollow out US white collar jobs by 2028
Feb 24th 2026
Citrini Research published a scenario, not a prediction, in which AI outperformance pushes US unemployment to about 10.2 percent and erodes white-collar driven consumer demand.
- Citrini labels its outcome a Global Intelligence Crisis scenario rather than a forecast.
- A June 2028 memo projects unemployment near 10.2 percent if AI exceeds expectations.
- The firm says white-collar workers represented about 50 percent of employment and roughly 75 percent of discretionary spending.
- In the scenario AI becomes a general intelligence that displaces technical and managerial roles alike.
- Companies redirect savings from layoffs into more AI, shifting spending from CapEx to OpEx and creating a reinforcing feedback loop.
- Reduced spending by displaced workers weakens demand and strains the US credit-consumer economy.