Shell doubles profit as Iran blockade pushes oil past $100

The Iran war has triggered a severe downturn in U.S. appliance demand, with Whirlpool executives describing the situation as recession-level on the company's first-quarter earnings call. Industry shipments fell 7.4% in the first quarter, with March alone plunging 10% as consumer confidence plummeted to its lowest level in 50 years. Whirlpool's core North America business delivered break-even performance after the company cut production volume 20% year-over-year to work down excess inventory, and reported an ongoing EBIT margin of just 1.3% with earnings per share of -$0.56. In response, Whirlpool announced the largest price increase in more than three decades - more than 10% already in effect with an additional 4% increase taking effect July 9 - and suspended its quarterly dividend, while also raising $1.1 billion through an equity offering to pay down debt. Meanwhile, certain sectors are reaping substantial profits from the geopolitical turmoil. Shell reported underlying earnings of $6.92 billion for the first quarter of 2026, more than double its fourth-quarter 2025 results and 24% higher year-on-year, while BP saw profits more than double to $3.2 billion due to surging crude oil costs. Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has effectively closed the vital waterway, which normally facilitates around a fifth of global oil and gas shipments, driving prices past $100 per barrel. Defence firms have also benefited, with BAE Systems saying it was on track to meet earnings growth forecasts of 9-11% as orders continue flowing, while Palantir reported 104% year-on-year growth in U.S. revenue as military and intelligence agencies increased spending. The conflict's economic ripple effects extend to banking, where major investment banks collectively recorded $47.4 billion in first-quarter profits as uncertainty drove trading volumes higher. JPMorgan reported net income of $16.5 billion for the quarter, up 13% from the prior year, while London's five major banks posted a collective pre-tax profit of 15 billion pounds. However, the war has also created challenges for some financial institutions, with HSBC missing its profit target due to a $1.3 billion credit charge, including approximately $300 million attributed to the Middle East conflict. Looking ahead, Whirlpool's Bitzer said April showed slight improvement from March's drop, though demand remained negative with soft volumes and mix pressure expected through Q2 and Q3, while noting that the new 25% tariff on imported appliances gives Whirlpool a competitive advantage since it manufactures roughly 80% of what it sells in the U.S. domestically.